A dawn that never broke
When U.S. President Donald Trump declared a “Complete and Total CEASEFIRE” between Iran and Israel at 05:00 GMT on Tuesday, markets breathed a collective sigh of relief. Within hours, that optimism collapsed under the rumble of fresh explosions over Tehran, Beersheba and the Persian Gulf. Iran’s latest salvos, Israeli reprisals, and an Iranian strike on America’s Al Udeid air base in Qatar have dragged a 12-day war back from the brink, exposing the ceasefire as little more than a diplomatic mirage. theguardian.comreuters.com
How the ceasefire was brokered—and broken
The ceasefire, hammered out in calls that involved Trump, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, was supposed to start at midnight Washington time (08:00 Dubai) on 24 June. Iran agreed to halt missile launches 12 hours before Israel paused its air campaign, while Israel promised to stand down eight hours after its own last strikes. Yet, according to Israeli officials, Iran fired three ballistic missiles at Israel at 00:06 ET—six minutes after the truce took effect killing four civilians and wounding 22 in Beersheba. understandingwar.org
Tehran flatly denies any such launch, insisting that Israel continued bombing “for an hour-and-a-half beyond the deadline.” Hours later eyewitnesses reported two blasts in northern Tehran as Israeli jets struck a radar site retaliation that Netanyahu admitted but claimed was “surgical.” reuters.com
Iran’s attack on Al Udeid: red lines and calibrated risks
Even before those Tehran explosions, Iran tested the ceasefire by sending up to 14 short- and medium-range missiles toward Al Udeid, the largest U.S. air base in the Middle East. Patriot batteries operated jointly by U.S. and Qatari crews intercepted the volley; no casualties were reported. Trump dismissed the barrage as “a very weak response” and thanked Iran for the advance notice that allowed the base to brace for impact. Still, the strike shattered the illusion of a regional cooling-off period and forced Qatar one of the mediators to defend its own skies in the opening hours of a supposed peace. cbsnews.comreuters.com
Beersheba under fire, Tehran under siege
The most lethal Iranian strike to date landed in Beersheba, southern Israel, where a residential block collapsed, killing four, including an off-duty soldier. Israel says the missile that hit the city was one of seven launched since 23 June, five of them fired in the frantic hours before the ceasefire and two afterward. In Tehran, residents of District Six and the northern Mehran neighborhood reported multiple loud detonations as Israeli munitions landed on what the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) claim were Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) depots and nuclear-linked labs. The IDF says it has now dropped more than 100 precision weapons on “dozens” of Iranian military targets since Sunday night. understandingwar.orgreuters.com
Nuclear anxieties: from bunker busters to agency walk-outs
Israel’s opening gambit on 13 June deep-penetration strikes on three Iranian nuclear sites set the tone for the conflict. The latest round of fighting saw B-2 bombers flown by U.S. crews join Israel in hitting underground facilities on 22 June. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian threatened to suspend cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) if Israel “unloads again,” raising fears that Tehran could eject inspectors and accelerate uranium enrichment under the cover of war. theguardian.comreuters.com
Trump’s public fury and private leverage
Trump’s response has been a mix of bluster and mediation. In an extraordinary outburst aboard Air Force One en route to the NATO summit, he told reporters he was “unhappy with both sides” but “especially frustrated with Israel,” accusing it of “unloading” after signing the truce. He later posted on Truth Social, “Israel. Do not drop those bombs. Bring your pilots home, now!” Sources inside the White House say Trump threatened to withhold real-time U.S. satellite targeting data if Israel resumed large-scale raids leverage that appears to have bought a temporary lull but not a lasting peace. reuters.com
Gaza bleeds on the sidelines
While the world watches missiles arc over Tel Aviv and Tehran, Gaza’s humanitarian nightmare deepens. At least 46 Palestinians were killed on Tuesday when a crowd waiting for aid was hit by what local officials say was Israeli artillery fire an incident Israel has neither confirmed nor denied pending investigation. Five International Committee of the Red Cross workers have now died in Gaza since the Iran Israel war began, compounding a death toll that local health authorities say exceeds 4,100. theguardian.com
The regional ripple: Iraq, Yemen and the drone war
Conflict spill-over is widening. A senior U.S. defense official confirmed that American forces intercepted drones near Iraq’s Ain al-Asad air base and Baghdad airport overnight, though no group has claimed responsibility. Meanwhile, Yemen’s Houthi movement armed and advised by the IRGC vowed to keep the Red Sea “closed to Israeli shipping,” raising insurance premiums for cargo vessels by as much as 40 percent in 48 hours. understandingwar.org
Global markets: relief rally or premature celebration?
Oil futures fell by 4 percent and major equity indices rallied when news of the ceasefire first broke only to retrace half those gains amid reports of new strikes. Traders say the market is pricing in an “on-off conflict,” with Brent hovering near $87 a barrel, well below the $102 peak seen when Israel’s first sorties hit Iran but far above pre-war norms. A prolonged clash could still drive crude into triple digits, imperiling global disinflation. reuters.com
Diplomatic cross-pressures
European leaders including French President Emmanuel Macron, U.K. opposition chief Keir Starmer and Estonian premier Kaja Kallas welcomed the ceasefire but warned of “severe consequences” if either side reignites large-scale hostilities. NATO secretary-general-elect Mark Rutte praised Trump’s effort yet cautioned that “de-escalation is not a destination but a process.” China, for its part, quietly applauded Trump’s decision to allow continued Chinese purchases of sanctioned Iranian crude an olive branch wrapped in geopolitical calculus. theguardian.com
Can a ceasefire survive mutual denial?
The central paradox is that Iran and Israel each insist they are not the aggressor. Tehran argues that any post-midnight launches are “Israeli fabrications,” while Jerusalem frames every raid on Iranian soil as “measured retaliation.” With verification nearly impossible drones jammed, satellites obscured by smoke, and both capitals curating information misinterpretation alone could push the region into a wider war. aljazeera.comunderstandingwar.org
What next?
Two tracks now run in parallel. The first is a frenetic military tit-for-tat that could flare again tonight if either side perceives a violation. The second is a diplomatic scramble in Doha, Muscat and Geneva to lock in verification mechanisms: hot-lines, third-party radar feeds, perhaps even on-the-ground ceasefire monitors. Absent such guardrails, the ceasefire’s credibility rests on the same fragile premise that broke it this morning mutual restraint in an atmosphere of distrust.
For now, the war is neither over nor fully resumed. It is suspended, punctuated by explosions and denials a conflict in quantum superposition, alive and dead at the same time, awaiting the next decisive strike or the first genuine concession. Until then, the Middle East holds its breath.
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